Macau casinos took in MOP5.0 billion (US$621 million) in the first eight days of February, approximately MOP625 million per day, according to Citigroup estimates. That is a 14% monthly drop from January and a decline of 11% per day.
The slowdown is common in the run-up to Chinese New Year, a nine-day holiday that will begin on Sunday. For the month, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau project gross gaming revenue of MOP20.5 billion, up about 4% over February 2025.
“Based on industry sources, VIP volumes fell approximately 12% to 14% month-on-month, and mass GGR fell approximately 11% to 13% month-on-month,” wrote the analysts. “The moderation … is likely reflecting the unsurprising seasonal pre-Chinese New Year slowdown in volumes.”
In statements Friday, MGM China CEO Kenneth Feng challenged that assumption. “There’s a new phenomenon these days,” Feng said on an earnings call. “Even ahead of holidays, there’s no slow period. … As to Chinese New Year, we are very optimistic. We see very, very encouraging booking trends.”
The world’s top gaming market had a storming January, with GGR of MOP22.63 billion, up 24% over January 2025 and 8.4% from December. The increase from a year ago exceeded analysts’ expectations of 18% and represented the highest January total since 2019.
Macquarie Equity Research characterised that strong opener as “opportune” in advance of Chinese New Year, “providing further confidence that Macau will be able to generate growth well into the double-digits during that period and for 1Q26 against an easy comp”.
Officials anticipate stronger global tourism
The Macao Government Tourism Office expects up to 1.5 million visitors over the nine-day holiday, up from 1.31 million last year. With a 5% boost in the entertainment budget, it will welcome the Year of the Horse “at full sprint”, per the MGTO, “with a programme of events to delight visitors and energise the city”. The MGTO anticipates 41 million visitors in full-year 2026, versus 40.06 million last year and exceeding the 2019 total of 39.6 million.
In 2025, the Macau Post Daily reports, foreign visitor volume rose by more than 13%, “with double-digit growth in markets such as Indonesia [and] Philippines”. MGTO Director Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes confirms the agency is targeting a minimum of 3 million foreign visitor arrivals for 2026, including from the Americas, the Middle East and Central Asian markets like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
MGM’s Feng noted the value of Macau’s ongoing campaign to “develop the city into a global and diversified tourist destination” anchored by gaming. “With more non-gaming and entertainment events taking place across Macau, we believe people will have even more reasons to visit, driving long-term and sustainable growth for the city.”
Marjorie Preston
Marjorie began her gaming career in 2007 and has focused on Asian gaming markets since 2020. Outside of work, she writes about travel and film and plays the drums.
Original article: https://igamingbusiness.com/finance/pre-chinese-new-year-drop-macau-gaming-revenue/
