The Las Vegas locals casino market is expected to remain strong and continue to financially outperform Strip properties, supported by reinvestment by major operators and tax cuts under President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, two gaming industry analysts said.
John DeCree, director of equity research at CBRE Group Inc., and Kim Noland of Gimme Credit LLC said in separate reports issued on Tuesday that the locals segment is better positioned than Strip-focused operators due to favorable demographics and capital spending, as reported by the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
“Although comparisons get more difficult for the locals market in 2026, there are still several catalysts on the horizon that should fuel moderate growth, including tax cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and recent capital reinvestment from major operators such as Boyd Gaming Corp. and Red Rock Resorts,” DeCree wrote.
He said the locals market should benefit more than the Strip from the legislation. “Across our coverage universe, the Las Vegas Locals market should benefit the most from the OBBB Act given the concentration of tipped employees and number of retirees living in Las Vegas, coupled with the city’s propensity to gamble.”
Noland highlighted Red Rock Resorts as a key driver of locals market growth, citing its expansion strategy and the performance of its Durango casino.
“The company owns seven major locations and 12 smaller properties, and its profit growth recently has been driven by its popular new casino Durango as well as upgrades at Green Valley Ranch and Sunset Station expected to be completed this year,” Noland wrote.
She said Red Rock has outperformed peers in the locals market, including Boyd Gaming. “Red Rock’s largest and most significant peer, Boyd Gaming, owns casinos nationwide, and while its profit margins may be slightly superior to Red Rock, its overall performance in the locals market has lagged recently due to the success of Durango.”
“Red Rock is outselling the competition in part because Durango has grown the market since it opened and also because Red Rock is taking share with its major expansions,” she wrote.
DeCree said the locals market has historically been more resilient than the Strip during economic downturns. “Since 1984, annual gross gaming revenue on the Strip declined 11 times compared with six times for the locals market,” he wrote.
“Of those six years, three were related to the global financial crisis (2008-10), decreasing 21 percent from peak-to-trough vs. 19 percent on the Strip,” DeCree said. “One was due to the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), down 23 percent vs. 43 percent on the Strip.”
He added that in other downturns, locals casinos performed better. “In other recessionary periods like the dot-com bubble, locals gross gaming revenue increased 8 percent despite a 3 percent decline on the Strip.”
DeCree said the locals market has increasingly diverged from Strip performance. “Moreover, the locals market has decoupled significantly from the Strip with a more diversified economy and a more favorable supply-demand balance with the number of gaming positions per 100,000 residents down over 47 percent since 2007.”
Noland said Trump’s tax policies should support spending by locals customers. “Administration tax policies on tips, overtime and a senior citizen tax deduction will continue to assist the company’s core customers in the locals market,” she wrote.
DeCree also downgraded Golden Entertainment Inc. as it transitions to being privately held.
“We are lowering our Golden price target to $28 (a share, from $32) based on the current exchange ratio for the stock portion of the transaction with Vici Properties Inc.,” he wrote.
While Golden’s Strat property may face pressure, DeCree said its locals business should benefit from broader trends. “While The Strat will likely remain challenged amid softer visitation and leisure demand on the Strip, we expect Golden’s locals business (Arizona Charlies) to benefit similarly to Boyd and Red Rock Resorts.”
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/01/30/117372-las-vegas-locals-casino-market-to-outperform-strip-analysts-say
