Severe winter weather cut US regional casino visitation by 5.4% in January, according to analysts, who estimate revenue declines of up to 5.7% in the hardest-hit markets despite expectations for higher winnings.
J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Politzer reported the visitation decline in a February 4 investor note, attributing part of the January performance to extreme temperatures and snowfall across multiple regions. Despite lower foot traffic, Politzer projected casino winnings would rise 2%.
Federal emergencies and visitation pressure
Jefferies Equity Research analyst David Katz noted that 12 states were placed under federal emergency declarations in January, including seven with casino operations: Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Virginia, and West Virginia.
Assuming that 40% of gambling activity occurs on weekends, Katz estimated that visitation running at 65% of normal levels would result in a 3.1% decline in gaming revenue. In areas facing the most severe weather, where casino traffic may have fallen to 35% of typical levels, revenue declines could reach 5.7%.
For comparison, Katz noted that New York, which was not under an emergency declaration, recorded a 1% increase at its video gaming properties during the same period.
Revenue outlook and calendar effects
Politzer said January results were better than initially expected given the severity of weather conditions. He observed that 2% growth would be “a lot better than we were anticipating.” He also pointed out that January 2026 included an extra weekend day and followed a “fairly challenging” January 2025, producing a flat year-over-year comparison when adjusted for timing.
Katz, however, projected a 3% to 5% decline in regional gaming revenue, citing ongoing competition among land-based operators. “Heightened competition remains the overarching risk for land-based operators and the latest snow/ice could cause downward revisions to 1Q26 Street estimates,” Katz wrote.
iGaming legislation adds pressure
Katz also pointed to legislative developments related to iGaming, citing recent enactment in Maine and bills advancing in Virginia, Indiana, and New York. “Implementation for [Virginia and Maine] is likely months away at the earliest, leading us to believe the 2026 impact on land-based incumbents is limited,” Katz wrote. “Still, once launched, the outcome is definitively negative for brick-and-mortar properties.”
Excluding states that introduced iGaming during the COVID period, Katz said land-based casinos typically experienced a 3.5% revenue decline following the introduction of online gambling. “We argue that further legalization is when, not if, which supports the view that operators should have a defined iGaming strategy to support a long-term growth pipeline,” he said.
Despite near-term pressure, Katz said some operators remain preferred names. He cited Boyd Gaming, Churchill Downs, and Station Casinos, pointing to management execution and near-term developments.
Gaming stocks traded about 7% lower, Katz noted, but he maintained that select companies remain investable. “We still believe there are investible stories for firms that offer a clear growth pathway,” he wrote. He added that Boyd has two projects underway, “and a relatively under-levered balance sheet that can be deployed for new opportunities or existing assets.”
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/02/05/117458-winter-storms-cut-january-us-regional-casino-visitation-by-54–according-to-jp-morgan
