Multiple asset managers have submitted applications for exchange traded funds tied to U.S. election outcomes, accelerating an effort to list products based on political event contracts while many regulators pursue parallel enforcement actions against prediction markets.
Bitwise Investments, Roundhill Investments, and GraniteShares have each filed plans with the Securities and Exchange Commission for ETFs referencing outcomes in the 2026 midterm and 2028 presidential elections. The SEC has not approved any of these political prediction market ETFs to date.
Bitwise has applied under a new PredictionShares brand for funds tracking Democratic or Republican results in the 2028 presidential race, as well as contracts tied to party control of the House and Senate after the 2026 midterms. The filing states that the presidential ETFs would not continue after contracts settle.
According to the document, “Following the conclusion of the 2028 Presidential Election and the settlement of the Democratic President Contracts pursuant to their terms, the Fund will liquidate its positions, settle any outstanding liabilities, and distribute all remaining assets to holders of Fund Shares.”
The ETFs tied to the losing party will basically be worthless after Election Day. For example, if a Democrat does not win, “the Fund will lose all of its value substantially,” after which the ETF will terminate.
GraniteShares has taken a different approach, proposing products that remain active beyond Election Day. Its filing indicates that the 2026 House and Senate funds would be reconfigured for the 2028 cycle, while its presidential ETFs would shift to derivatives linked to the 2032 election.
None of the issuers disclosed which designated contract markets will provide political event contracts for the proposed ETFs. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket remain the dominant operators.
The filings enter a market where analysts expect active trading. Ganesh Mahidhar, Investment Professional at Further Ventures, told Decrypt that “Given the level of interest in these event markets, providing liquidity would be very attractive for various hedge funds and quant trading firms.”
However, regulatory disputes surrounding products of this nature are already underway. Nevada, Massachusetts, and other states have taken action against event contracts offered by Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that they constitute unlicensed gambling products. At the same time, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asserted that prediction markets fall under federal rules.
Chairman Michael Selig said the agency has filed an amicus brief in a federal appeals court to reinforce that position. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, he wrote that the CFTC “will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets,” adding that event contracts are treated as swaps under federal regulation.
