The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) confirmed that it has approved a new class of derivatives tied to future events, a move that gives B3 the green light to introduce binary options during the first quarter of 2026. The exchange expects to finish the rollout by early in the second quarter and will initially restrict access to professional investors with financial assets above R$10 million ($1.92 million).
Platforms developed by crypto and online betting operators have been offering probability-based contracts without a specific legal framework, even as regulators debate whether these arrangements qualify as securities, bets, or something between the two, reports BLNData.
B3, for its part, intends to begin with contracts linked to the dollar, the Ibovespa, and bitcoin. These binary products pair opposing views on defined outcomes, such as whether the dollar will fall below R$5 on a particular date or whether the Ibovespa will surpass 200 points in May.
The party whose prediction proves correct receives the full combined amount placed on the scenario, replicating structures that B3 executives say have existed in other corners of the exchange.
In an interview with Valor, B3 president Gilson Finkelsztain said: “The world of derivatives is increasingly approaching the frontier of the predictive market.”
Luiz Masagão, vice president of products and clients, noted the simplicity of the new instruments, stating: “There is an audience seeking this simplicity. It’s an entry point, so that [the target audience] can then evolve in their investments. This is one of the great values of the product.”
He cited the Copom option, which allows investors to position themselves on future Selic decisions, as an existing example of event-focused trading that has begun attracting individual participants alongside institutional ones.
While B3 prepares its launch, newer entrants are positioning themselves more broadly. Futuriza, scheduled to debut in March, will offer markets on politics, economics, sports, entertainment, and culture, and plans a B2B arm aimed at organizations seeking predictive insights. Local platforms Prévias and Palpitada are also active, reflecting interest that has outpaced regulatory clarity.
The CVM, in its formal communication, said it “monitors, within the scope of its legal competencies, the evolution of initiatives in the capital market and is constantly modernizing regulation and supervision, based on various factors such as innovation, supervisory experience, and demands from market participants,” adding that its approval of the new B3 contracts followed current rules.
The question left unresolved is which authority should oversee prediction markets: the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance. Claudia Yoshinaga of FGV EAESP said the discussion parallels earlier disputes around cryptocurrencies and sports betting, including whether such activity should fall under the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets.
Attorneys warn that ambiguity will not halt the sector’s expansion. Lissa Workman said, “Remember that we’re in a year of the World Cup and elections in Brazil,” suggesting conditions may accelerate use.
Paulo Brancher argued that guardrails must remain firm, stating, “Innovation alone cannot eliminate the safeguards that this type of activity involves,” pointing to the United States, where regulators review each contract to prevent “self-fulfilling” structures.
Globally, forecasts suggest the sector could reach US$1 trillion annually, and platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi continue drawing interest, though none are available to Brazilian users. B3 is also preparing derivatives linked to GDP and the IPCA inflation index, anticipating further demand once regulation takes shape.
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/02/20/117697-brazils-cvm-greenlights-eventbased-derivatives-as-b3-prepares-rollout
