Kalshi has launched its prediction market offering in Brazil through a partnership with Brazilian brokerage firm XP International, its first expansion outside the United States. The initiative allows clients of XP’s Clear Corretora brand who maintain an international investment account to access Kalshi’s platform and trade contracts linked to real-world events.
Investors in Brazil will initially be able to trade contracts tied to financial and economic developments. In the United States, Kalshi’s markets also include contracts based on outcomes in sports and entertainment.
With the launch announced on Monday, Kalshi has become the first prediction market operator to go live in Brazil. The move places the company ahead of Brazilian stock exchange operator B3, which received approval from the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission in February to become the country’s first prediction market operator. Industry reports indicated that B3 was expected to launch its own platform by the end of March.
Brazil currently lacks a formal regulatory framework governing prediction markets. While the country’s online betting sector has been subject to regulation since the legal market opened on 1 January last year, those rules apply specifically to licensed fixed-odds betting operators.
Under those regulations, operators must establish headquarters in Brazil and comply with strict know-your-customer and certification requirements. They are also required to pay a license fee of BRL30 million, equivalent to about $5.8 million, and face substantial tax obligations.
Legal experts say the status of prediction markets remains uncertain within Brazil’s broader regulatory environment. Andre Santa Ritta, partner at Pinheiro Neto Advogados, described the emergence of prediction markets as another challenge for the country’s betting sector.
“In Brazil, you have this regulatory grey zone in which we don’t know yet where to place the predictions market industry, because it’s not iGaming and it’s not within this framework of the fixed-odds betting industry,” Santa Ritta told iGB.
“We do not have regulations saying it is a type of derivative, which is how they regulate it in the US, so in Brazil, the predictions market is still in a grey zone, which means you have a lot of opportunities for people willing to take the risks, and at the same time, taking consumers out of the regulated iGaming industry.”
Kalshi had previously signaled its intention to enter the Brazilian market. Co-founder and Brazilian native Luana Lopes Lara said in December that the company was exploring the move and hoped to announce the expansion in early 2026. Following the official launch, Lopes Lara highlighted the importance of the partnership with XP International.
“As a Brazilian, I couldn’t be more excited for XP to be Kalshi’s first brokerage partner outside the US. XP is one of Brazil’s largest financial institutions; expanding prediction markets to Brazil is an important step in providing more people around the world with access to fair, safe and regulated markets.”
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/03/10/117977-kalshi-launches-prediction-markets-in-brazil-through-xp-partnership
