Brazil’s Ministry of Finance said it is conducting preliminary studies on prediction markets as authorities examine how such platforms fit within the country’s regulatory framework.
The statement was issued by the Ministry’s Secretariat for Prizes and Betting, which said the segment is under technical monitoring while internal analyses are underway. The announcement came as Brazilian brokerage firm XP disclosed a partnership with the U.S.-based platform Kalshi to offer prediction contracts linked to Brazilian economic indicators.
Under the arrangement, the products will initially be available to clients of Clear Corretora who hold international accounts. The move marks Kalshi’s first expansion outside the United States.
Regulatory debate around prediction markets has intensified in Brazil, particularly regarding whether such activities should be treated as financial instruments or betting operations, reports BLNData. Authorities said future regulatory steps will depend on the outcome of ongoing technical studies and consultations with other regulators.
“The Secretariat for Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance monitors the issue continuously and technically, including in the international arena. The prediction market is part of the Secretariat’s internal analysis agenda, with preliminary studies underway. It should be noted that, at the moment, there are no Brazilian companies formally authorized by the SPA to operate in this segment,” the Secretariat said in its statement.
The agency also said it had received technical submissions from industry participants addressing prediction markets and their possible regulatory classification. “The Secretariat received a technical note from companies in the sector presenting assessments of so-called predictive markets and addresses the issue with caution, institutional responsibility, and a focus on preventing regulatory gaps, seeking to ensure consistency with the current legal framework,” it added.
Officials indicated that further regulatory evaluation will require coordination with the Securities and Exchange Commission. It stated that any further regulatory assessments on this matter depend on the completion of ongoing technical analyses and will be conducted in conjunction with the relevant authorities.
Prediction markets differ from conventional fixed-odds betting mainly in how transactions are structured. In traditional betting systems, online operators act as bookmakers, determining odds, paying winners, and retaining losing stakes.
In prediction markets, platforms typically facilitate transactions between participants rather than acting as bookmakers. Kalshi’s concept treats such contracts similarly to derivatives, financial instruments whose value derives from underlying indicators such as oil prices, currencies, or interest rates.
The Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming has also addressed the issue, stating in a technical note that any transaction where consumers assume risk linked to the uncertain outcome of a sporting event should be classified as a bet, regardless of the terminology, technology, or contractual structure used.
Licensed betting operators in Brazil have raised concerns about platforms operating without specific regulation. During a February 27 meeting with acting secretary Daniele Correa Cardoso, companies asked the Secretariat to block the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms in the country.
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/03/13/118063-finance-ministry-studies-prediction-markets-as-debate-grows-over-regulation-in-brazil
