The Brazilian storm: the fight for poker’s soul

If you walk into a cafe in São Paulo, you’ll see people on their phones. What are they doing? Playing poker. With over 10 million active players, Brazil has become the global capital of the game (CBTH Official Data).

However, as the government fully implements Law 14.790/23 in 2026, the industry is in a state of high anxiety. The fear isn’t regulation itself. It’s the “tax and control” model borrowed directly from online casinos.

The legal paradox: skill vs. chance

Historically, poker in Brazil has enjoyed a unique status as a game of skill, recognized by the Ministry of Sports. This distinction is the only reason it survived the 1946 ban on gambling:

• The Ministry of Finance Overhaul. Under the new regime of the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA), poker is being grouped with “Bets” (sports betting) and online casinos for tax purposes (Law 14.790/23 Text);

• The conflict. While the law recognizes poker’s skill element, the Ordinance SPA/MF No. 1,231/2024 imposes technical standards (like RNG audits and facial recognition) that are identical to those for digital slots (SPA/MF Ordinance Details).

“The proposed changes are risky. Business model-wise, poker is very different from casino games. The revenue source is not the same, and applying the same rules kills the entire poker ecosystem. We have already seen it in numerous emerging markets where the vertical growth was hindered by the lack of differentiation in taxation models,” says Eugene Rusakov, Regional Market Lead LatAm at EvenBet Gaming.

Why is the industry terrified of “Casino Rules”?

The primary fear is a “one-size-fits-all” fiscal model. If poker is regulated like a casino, the delicate mathematical ecosystem of the game will collapse. The primary objective threats:

• Taxation destroys the “Math”. Operators face a 12% tax on GGR (EY Tax Analysis). In poker, where the house only takes a small rake, this tax level – designed for high-margin casino games – can make hosting games unprofitable;

• Non-deductible losses. New rules for 2026 require players to pay 15% tax on net winnings above the exemption threshold. The Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) warns that without clear rules on deducting tournament buy-ins as expenses, professional poker becomes mathematically impossible;

• The “30-minute” rule. Mandatory geolocation and identity checks every 30 minutes – designed to stop casino botting – can disrupt the concentration and flow of a multi-hour poker session.

“The proposed taxation model will punish both operators and players. Operators will be forced to cut down all potentially unprofitable formats, including freerolls, cash games with jackpots and cash drops, and almost all promotional activities. Players’ interest in the local operators will cease, and we will see their exodus to illegal and offshore poker games,” says Eugene Rusakov.

Comparing the regimes: a strategy for survival

The industry is desperately lobbying to keep poker in its own lane. Mixing the two creates a toxic environment for serious players:

The danger of “Closed Borders”

Casino players don’t care if they play against a computer. Poker players need a large pool of human opponents. If Brazil adopts a “segregated market” (locking 10 million Brazilians in their own digital room), the industry predicts a mass exodus.

• Liquidity crisis. Without shared international pools, prize pools will shrink, and the “Sunday Millions” of the world will lose their luster;

• The result. Professional players will flee back to unregulated offshore sites to find global action. Data from BNL Data shows that markets with segregated liquidity struggle with significantly higher “black market” migration.

The verdict: a battle for identity

Brazil is at a crossroads. If the Ministry of Finance treats poker like a “digital slot,” they won’t just regulate it – they will accidentally destroy the very professional ecosystem that made Brazil a global leader. The industry’s message to the SPA is clear: “Tax the profit, not the play”. As the market transitions in 2026, the survival of Brazilian poker depends on whether the regulator sees a strategic athlete or just another gambler at a machine.

“When we were faced with a similar situation in Peru, EvenBet worked closely with one of our customers – a prominent sports betting operator – to change the way regulatory authorities treated online poker. In that particular case, we succeeded. Whether the industry will rally around poker in Brazil remains to be seen,” concludes EvenBet Gaming’s expert.

Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/03/16/118080-the-brazilian-storm-the-fight-for-pokers-soul