Macau’s casino sector is expected to outpace regional and U.S. peers in revenue growth this year, although profitability may remain under pressure, according to Morgan Stanley.
The bank forecasts Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow around 6% year-on-year in 2026, exceeding the expected growth of roughly 1% in both Las Vegas and Singapore.
The outlook follows a solid 2025, when Macau’s GGR rose 9.1% year-on-year to MOP247.40 billion ($30.63 billion).
Despite stronger revenue growth, earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) are projected to rise only about 2% in 2026, below market expectations and weaker than the previous year.
“We believe cost pressure (especially reinvestment) is structural due to premium mass focus,” the bank said, highlighting ongoing competition for mid-tier players and elevated promotional spending.
Morgan Stanley warned of “negative earnings revisions” amid “margin pressure that could drive underperformance” and “pressure EBITDA estimates for 2026”.
Morgan Stanley said three factors could weigh on profitability: “second-half 2026 GGR growth slowing due to base effect and base-mass [player business] continuing to be slow”, “elevated levels of promotion allowances”, and “continued non-gaming expenses”.
The bank downgraded its view on Macau’s gaming sector to “in-line” from “attractive”, citing expectations of “lower GGR year-on-year growth starting May and negative EBITDA growth in the second quarter and third quarter”.
In Singapore, which hosts a casino duopoly comprising Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa, Morgan Stanley said the market “should continue to see gaming volumes grow”.
“We expect gaming volumes to grow at a mid-single digit pace in 2026,” it said.
However, the bank cautioned that gains in volume could be offset by normalization in hold rates following a strong 2025.
“Following unusually strong hold rates at Marina Bay Sands in 2025, hold normalisation will likely offset volume growth, leading to flat industry GGR and circa 1-percent year-on-year decline in EBITDA for Singapore in 2026.”
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/03/19/118162-macau-ggr-growth-to-outpace-singapore-and-las-vegas-in-2026-margins-under-pressure-morgan-stanley
