DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment are likely to beat fourth-quarter earnings expectations after stronger-than-anticipated betting margins on National Football League (NFL) games late in the quarter, according to a note from Macquarie.
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon said NFL “hold” – the percentage of wagers sportsbooks retain as revenue – rebounded sharply in November and December, a trend not fully captured in current consensus forecasts.
Based on company guidance, implied fourth-quarter hold rates were about 11% for Flutter and 8.5% for DraftKings. Actual results in the final two months of the quarter point to higher levels, with Flutter achieving roughly 14% hold and DraftKings about 10%, lifting estimated full-quarter hold to around 12% and 9%, respectively, Beynon said.
“During the last two months of 4Q, FLUT/DKNG achieved hold rates of 14%/10%, resulting in 4Q hold of 12%/9%,” the analyst said.
The stronger margins could translate into a meaningful earnings boost. Macquarie estimates an additional $100 million to $200 million in fourth-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for Flutter, and $50 million to $100 million for DraftKings. That would put Flutter’s quarterly EBITDA at about $450 million, well above a $343 million consensus estimate, while DraftKings could generate roughly $273 million compared with consensus expectations of $237 million.
Shares of both companies struggled earlier in 2025 after a run of customer-friendly NFL outcomes forced operators to cut guidance, underscoring the importance of football betting margins to profitability and valuations. DraftKings shares were down about 40% from August highs at their fourth-quarter lows, Macquarie noted, even as NFL hold rebounded late in the season and online betting stocks recovered only modestly.
Beynon also dismissed concerns that the rise of prediction markets poses a significant competitive threat to regulated sportsbooks. He said such platforms account for only about 5% of legal sportsbook handle, with most activity occurring in non-legal betting states and therefore representing incremental rather than cannibalistic revenue.
“Our view is unchanged from Day 1 — Predictions’ sports product is not competitive with online sports betting, and most volume is from non-legal sports betting states, creating incremental EBITDA opportunities for DKNG/FLUT,” he said.
DraftKings is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 12, while Flutter is due to report on Feb. 26.
Macquarie said it favours online casino and sportsbook stocks heading into earnings season. Data and technology providers Genius Sports and Sportradar were seen as “unfairly hit” by recent weakness, with potential upside from growth in live betting.
Elsewhere, Penn Entertainment may see a small benefit from improved hold, though it is still expected to post a fourth-quarter EBITDA loss. Macquarie noted that December betting handle fell about 2%, partly due to fewer NFL Sundays and a lack of marquee matchups.
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/01/20/117227-stronger-nfl-betting-margins-seen-lifting-q4-results-for-draftkings-flutter
