Kalshi has announced the launch of its predictions market offering in Brazil through a strategic partnership with Brazilian brokerage firm XP International.
The move, announced on Monday, marks Kalshi’s maiden market outside the US, as well as the first predictions market in Brazil.
Via the partnership, clients of XP’s Clear Corretora brand that hold an international investment account will have access to Kalshi’s offering, with investors able to trade contracts on real-world events.
According to Kalshi, the focus will initially be on financial and economic events. In the US, Kalshi also offers contracts on events such as sports and entertainment.
Kalshi co-founder and Brazilian native Luana Lopes Lara said back in December the company was eyeing a Brazil entry, stating she had hoped to announce the move in early 2026.
With the entry now announced, Lopes Lara voiced her delight, saying: “As a Brazilian, I couldn’t be more excited for XP to be Kalshi’s first brokerage partner outside the US.
“XP is one of Brazil’s largest financial institutions; expanding prediction markets to Brazil is an important step in providing more people around the world with access to fair, safe and regulated markets.”
Kalshi the first predictions market to go live in Brazil
With Monday’s announcement, Kalshi has become the first predictions market operator to go live in Brazil.
In February, the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) gave Brazilian stock exchange operator B3 the green light to become the first predictions market operator in Brazil.
But with BNL Data reporting B3 planned to go live by the end of March, Kalshi has managed to get in first.
Brazil doesn’t yet have a formal regulatory framework governing predictions markets, with licensed betting operators subject to strict regulation since the legal online market went live on 1 January last year.
Licensed fixed-odds betting operators must have a headquarters in Brazil and adhere to strict KYC and certification requirements.
Additionally, licensed operators face a BRL30 million ($5.8 million) licence fee and a hefty tax burden.
Andre Santa Ritta, partner at Pinheiro Neto Advogados, told iGB at ICE Barcelona he viewed predictions markets as another “turbulent” moment for the Brazilian betting sector.
“In Brazil, you have this regulatory grey zone in which we don’t know yet where to place the predictions market industry, because it’s not iGaming and it’s not within this framework of the fixed-odds betting industry,” Santa Ritta said.
“We do not have regulations saying it is a type of derivative, which is how they regulate it in the US, so in Brazil the predictions market is still in a grey zone, which means you have a lot of opportunities for people willing to take the risks, and at the same time taking consumers out of the regulated iGaming industry.
“I think people who place wagers are not necessarily the same people who are actually buying contracts in the predictions market, but sometimes there is this overlap, so they are competing with each other somehow. It’s another challenge.”
Original article: https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/kalshi-announces-brazil-predictions-market-launch/
