A majority of US adults classify prediction market trading as more aligned with gambling than investing, according to a survey conducted by Ipsos and commissioned by the American Institute for Boys and Men.
The survey found that 61% of respondents consider prediction market trading “closer to gambling,” while 8% say it is “closer to investing.” Another 18% describe it as a mix of both, and 12% say it is neither.
Prediction markets have gained traction as platforms where users trade contracts tied to outcomes across sports, politics, business, news, and entertainment. Their expansion has drawn attention from regulators and gambling industry stakeholders.
Ipsos surveyed 2,363 adults between February 27 and March 1. The study included an oversample of men aged 18 to 24, according to the commissioning organization.
Jonathan Cohen, policy lead at the American Institute for Boys and Men, pointed to younger men as a demographic with higher exposure to gambling-related risks, particularly as access to sports-related contracts expands.
“The harms of sports gambling are disproportionately concentrated among younger men, and so the prediction markets are clearly the new frontier in this conversation about sports gambling,” Cohen told Axios.
Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction market Kalshi, has disputed comparisons between prediction markets and gambling.
“I just don’t really know what this has to do with gambling,” he said back in April. “If we are gambling, then I think you’re basically calling the entire financial market gambling.”
Regulators at both federal and state levels are examining how prediction markets should be governed. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has indicated plans to pursue legal action to maintain its oversight authority.
At the same time, several state gaming commissions, including Nevada’s gaming regulator, along with multiple states, have taken steps to prevent prediction market platforms from operating within their jurisdictions.
Cohen said public perception may influence how these platforms are regulated.
“If people see this as more like gambling than investing, then certainly these platforms — especially the sports contracts — should be regulated more like gambling than investing,” Cohen said.
The survey indicates that familiarity with prediction markets remains limited. About 1 in 5 Americans reported being very or somewhat familiar with them, while roughly 4% said they had used a prediction market within the past six months. Cohen said this leaves room for public attitudes and regulatory approaches to evolve as awareness grows.
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/03/18/118106-us-adults-classify-prediction-markets-closer-to-gambling-than-investing-in-new-poll
