A new study has revealed the participation of the illegal market in the betting sector fell in the first half of 2026 compared to previous research, released in June 2025.
The study estimated that between 38% and 44% of online bets were placed with illegal betting operators across the first half of 2026, compared to the 41%-51% figure reported in the earlier survey.
The findings come from the study titled “Sizing and Combating the Illegal Betting Market in Brazil”, conducted by LCA Consultores and using data from the “Incidence of Illegal Betting in Brazil” research, undertaken by the Locomotiva Institute at the request of the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR).
The Locomotiva Institute research was conducted in May 2026 throughout Brazil, with responses from 2,291 gamblers.
In the three months prior to the survey, 53% of respondents placed bets on sites that did not require facial recognition. Some 48% placed bets on domains ending in something other than .bet.br, which is only able to be utilised by licensed entities. Of the total, 37% made deposits on platforms via credit card and 23% via cryptocurrencies – methods not accepted in the regulated market.
Government measures starting to take effect
Carlos Lima, executive president of the IBJR, said the latest figures indicate that government efforts to curb illegal betting are starting to have an impact.
“The numbers show that the regulations and measures adopted by the federal government to combat illegal platforms are beginning to produce concrete results,” he said. “The observed reduction is a positive sign of the consolidation of the Brazilian regulated market.
“The challenge now is to continue this progress, strengthening the fight against clandestine operators and ensuring that regulatory evolution occurs with legal certainty and predictability, preventing new measures applicable exclusively to authorised operators from creating asymmetries that make the illegal market more attractive to consumers and end up directing bettors to clandestine platforms.”
The regulation, in effect since 1 January 2025, stipulates that only licensed operators can legally operate in the country. They must comply with tax obligations, operational standards and mechanisms to protect bettors.
In the first year of the regulated market, betting companies contributed BRL9.95 billion in taxes and legal allocations. They benefited areas such as sports, tourism, public safety and education. In addition, each platform collected BRL30 million in concession fees. According to the study “Overview of the fixed-odds betting market”, regulated operators invested approximately BRL7.5 billion in share capital, with an estimated generation of 15,500 direct and indirect jobs.
Advances promoted by regulation
Eric Brasil, director of regulation and public policies at LCA Consultores, said the latest estimates point to both a smaller illegal market and greater clarity over its size.
“The results of the estimate of illegal operators’ participation in gambling consumption indicate not only a relative decrease in the size of the illegal market, but also less uncertainty about the magnitude of this market,” Brasil outlined.
“The estimate signals important progress resulting from regulation and measures to combat illegal platforms. At the same time, the results reinforce the importance of maintaining the evolution of this work, with the continuity of enforcement initiatives.”
The platforms where some of the informal practices were carried out represented a large part of participation in the betting market from those eligible to bet. Approximately 51% only used this type of platform, and 36% said that was where they placed most of their bets. For 8%, they are related to approximately half of their bets; and 6% said they are where they placed the fewest bets.
“The study reveals a slight reduction in the participation of illegal betting,” said Renato Meirelles, president of the Locomotiva Institute. “But it is still at high levels, with half of Brazilian bettors operating in the unlicensed market.
“The positive data is that there is almost a consensus that this problem needs to be addressed. Even those who gamble on clandestine sites believe it is the country’s duty to combat them more forcefully.”
Risks and combat
A relevant finding observed in the research is that the vast majority of Brazilian bettors recognised the risks of clandestine operators.
Of the total, 77% fully or partially agreed that illegal betting sites do not comply with rules and regulations to promote responsible gambling. They admitted that, therefore, they are more dangerous for bettors.
The study found 13% neither agreed nor disagreed, 5% partially disagreed and 5% strongly disagreed. These numbers demonstrate the importance of the fight against illegal platforms that the federal government has been carrying out.
Original article: https://igamingbusiness.com/offshore-gaming/brazil-study-illegal-betting-market-share-h1-2026/
