The Cambodian government and research outlets say the country’s war on cyber-scams as well as geopolitical tensions will have a negative impact on the economy, at least in the short term.
The government adjusted down its economic growth forecast for 2026 from 5% to 4.2%. For 2027, it expects growth of 5%, versus a previous projection of 5.5%. Officials acknowledged that the ongoing crackdown on cyber-fraud centres – many operating out of Cambodian casinos – will have a short-term negative affect on construction, real estate and consumer spending.
However, the reduction or elimination of scam compounds could have salutary long-term impacts, polishing the kingdom’s global reputation and boosting investor trust.
Duke Lim Heng, vice president of the Cambodian Chamber of Commerce, says it’s essential to “control tech scams and gangs” to attract foreign investment. Online love and crypto scams typically go hand in hand with other crimes like money laundering and human trafficking.
Meanwhile, data from the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) suggests the economy will grow 4.9% this year, with inflation up 2.9%. AMRO expects those numbers to adjust for the better in 2027, with economic growth of 5.2% and 2.5% inflation.
The International Monetary Fund projects GDP expansion of just 4% in 2026. However, the IMF views it not as a crisis, but as a reset year following a post-pandemic rebound.
Is Cambodia committed to abolishing online scams?
In January and February, Cambodia reportedly shut down 190 scam centres across the country. They included 44 casinos allegedly involved in “fraudulent activities carried out through technological systems”.
It also deported kingpins like Chen Zhi, who allegedly ran one of the world’s biggest online fraud enterprises.
Such enforcement demonstrates “strengthened regulation of the commercial gaming sector … ensuring operations are conducted lawfully”, claims Cambodia’s Commercial Gambling Management Commission.
But Amnesty International questions Cambodia’s commitment to eradicating cyber-crime. Even as the government touts the crackdown, “evidence shows it is simultaneously recognising the plans for casino properties where abusive scamming compounds are run”, said Montse Ferrer of the watchdog agency.
Economic projections could change depending on Gulf War
The current economic outlook is subject to change depending on developments in the Middle East.
Since February, the prices of gasoline, diesel and propane in Cambodia have risen by 30%, 87% and 70% respectively. The latter has almost doubled from pre-war levels.
If hostilities drag on, AMRO notes, it will hammer the greater economy, affecting food prices, tourism, transportation and manufacturing. The Asian Development Bank suggests a prolonged war could raise inflation by as much as 3.2 percentage points across ASEAN nations.
Marjorie Preston
Marjorie began her gaming career in 2007 and has focused on Asian gaming markets since 2020. Outside of work, she writes about travel and film and plays the drums.
Original article: https://igamingbusiness.com/cyberfraud/cyber-fraud-crackdown-puts-pressure-on-cambodian-economy/
