Macau casinos generated MOP22.62 billion ($2.8 billion) in gross gaming revenue in March, up 15% from the same period in 2025, according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ). GGR rose 9.8% over February, thanks to robust visitation and gameplay during Lunar New Year celebrations.
From January through March, the industry reaped GGR of MOP65.87 billion, an increase of 14.3% versus Q1 2025. The quarterly total was down 13.5% compared to 2019, but if positive trends continue, the total for 2026 could grow 8.3% year-on-year, according to CBRE Equity Research. That would exceed the investment firm’s prior estimate of 6%.
Economic stimulus boosts consumer confidence
In a Monday note, CBRE analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh attributed the upswing to robust tourism and Macau’s continuing cultivation of the base mass segment. They also point to an increasingly stable Chinese economy.
In March, Beijing set a target of 4.5% to 5% GDP growth for the year. Public policy expert Zhu Fangfei has called it a steady transition “from high-speed growth to … high-quality development”. DeCree and Marsh say “the Chinese consumer continues to benefit from targeted stimulus”.
For most operators, they added, “the magnitude of topline growth in first quarter 2026 was enough to support continued EBITDA growth … even [for] those that might have given up some GGR share in exchange for profitability.” Furthermore, they said, operating expenditures and “competitive pressures” among the Big 6 casino concessionaires is “stabilising”.
“We expect promotional activity to remain elevated but stabilise in full-year 2026,” they stated. Meanwhile, a rise in operational expenditures “should also normalise as many concession-related opex investments are now baked into the cost structure”.
Macau banks on mass play, entertainment
Ongoing investments in entertainment in Macau “should attract additional visitation, particularly from the base mass segment that has yet to fully recover”, the investment firm added.
That aligns with a report from Macao News noting that, minus holidays, March tends to be a slower month for tourism. But casino operators have filled out the off-peak period with appearances by big-name performers. On 28 March, K-pop band ATEEZ filled the 14,000-seat Venetian Arena. The same night, Taiwanese-American rapper Mark Tuan attracted more than 5,000 fans to the Studio City Event Center.
Operators vary the entertainment to attract more than teenagers. In a single month last summer, Citi analysts credited Korean Cantopop singer Jacky Cheung for a 16% increase in premium play at Galaxy Macau, and a 36% increase in the the average wager.
2026 outlook still short of pre-Covid benchmark
CBRE’s estimate of 8.6% GGR growth is more than double the more conservative estimate from the local government. Macau officials have set a GGR target of MOP236 billion for the year, up 3.5% from its revised 2025 goal of MOP228 billion.
Meanwhile, S&P Global expects “slow but steady” growth in the 3% to 7% range, as Macau moves “from a post-pandemic rebound to a more maturity-driven phase”. Jefferies looks for annual growth of 5.3%. However, none of them expect GGR to exceed the MOP292.45 billion posted in 2019.
Marjorie Preston
Marjorie began her gaming career in 2007 and has focused on Asian gaming markets since 2020. Outside of work, she writes about travel and film and plays the drums.
Original article: https://igamingbusiness.com/casino/tourism/with-q1-boost-macau-casinos-on-track-to-surpass-2025-ggr/
