If you find yourself betting on NFL matches throughout the season, you probably already know a thing or two about betting, but when it comes to the Super Bowl, it helps to do your due diligence and prepare yourself as best as possible. It’s the most anticipated sporting event in America, and betting on it can be another way to add an extra atmosphere of fun and excitement. Hopefully, at the end of this guide, you’ll be better prepared and able to make a more informed decision when the time comes to bet on the big game.
Understanding Super Bowl betting odds
If you’ve never bet before, Super Bowl odds can be a bit confusing, but they’re not too hard to understand once you get a grasp on them. There are three different formats, American odds, decimal odds, and fractional odds. Since it’s the Super Bowl, you’ll probably see American odds when you go to bet, but sportsbooks in different countries might use decimal or fractional odds.
American odds use a plus or minus sign followed by a number. The plus sign is for the underdog, while the minus sign is for the team favoured to win the game. The number next to the plus sign indicates how much money you would win for every $100 you stake on the underdog. The number next to the minus sign indicates how much money you would have to bet on the favoured team to win $100.
Decimal odds are more popular in Europe and indicate how much money you would receive if your bet won (including your original stake). Fractional odds are more common in the United Kingdom. The numerator shows your potential profit, while the denominator shows how much you would need to bet to win that amount.
Types of bets available for the Super Bowl
After getting a hang of the odds, you will want to understand the most common betting options. It’s common for people to put together “Squares” where bettors pick certain scores that will appear during the game and at the end of quarters, but for the purposes of this guide, it will cover more straightforward bets, like the following:
- Moneyline bets: This is the easiest bet to understand, as your simply betting on which team you think will win the Super Bowl. The odds for this bet are based on the perceived strength of each team.
- Point spread bets: For this bet, the sportsbook sets a point spread, or the margin of victory the favoured team must win by for the bet to payout. The underdog team can lose by less than the overall spread, or win outright, for the bet to win.
- Over/under bets: In this bet, you’re predicting whether the total combined score of both teams will be over or under a certain amount, predetermined by the sportsbook.
- Prop bets: These bets can theoretically be the most fun, as they are often not directly related to the overall outcome of the game, and instead focus on random things within the Super Bowl, like the length of the half-time show or the number of points a player will score.
Now that you understand the different types of betting odds and the different bets you can place on the Super Bowl, here are some things you can use to get an edge on the competition and make a more informed bet.
Analyze upcoming weather
Always check the weather before betting on a sports match, especially one as significant as the Super Bowl. Different weather conditions can affect players and teams in different ways. A team with a strong passing game might have to run more in heavy winds or rain. Extreme temperatures can potentially force coaches to cycle their players out more, forcing them to use sub-optimal players you might not have factored into your calculations. Winds and rain can also affect kicks, making it harder to score field goals or one-point conversions. Weather can change at the last minute, so keep an eye on the forecasts and update your betting strategy as needed.
Look at player suspensions or injuries
If the best wide receiver is out due to an injury or suspension, you should definitely take that into account. Player injuries are almost always announced ahead of time, so keep an eye on the news and stay up-to-date on any possible suspensions that may have occurred. If a player is not playing in the Super Bowl for one of those reasons, take a look at the roster or check who was announced to replace them and see how that player fits into your prediction model.
Take head-to-head data into account
Head-to-head data is the best way to improve your prediction model and gain an edge when you place a bet. By looking at previous matchups between the two teams in the Super Bowl and how they performed against each other, you can get a better idea of what to expect come game day. Consider looking at offensive and defensive strategies, players’ performances against each other, playing styles, and overall historical trends.
Practice safe betting strategies
Now that you know about the odds, bet types, and have some tips, you should keep the following in mind to avoid burning a hole in your pocket and betting more than you can afford to lose.
- Set a budget: You should always look at your bankroll and determine how much you are willing to lose on any one bet. Bets aren’t a sure thing, no matter how confident you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
- Do your research: Take the above tips into mind and do proper research before placing a bet. Consider any factors that may alter the outcome of the game.
- Never chase losses: If you’re on a losing streak, you’re better off taking a step back and analyzing your mistakes than doubling down and losing even more.
- Use bonuses and promotions: Most sportsbooks offer a bonus or promotion around the Super Bowl. Shop around and see which trusted sportsbook offers the best bonuses to increase your potential bankroll.
- Bet with your head, not your heart: It’s easy to get lost in the excitement of the Super Bowl or bet on your favourite team, even though they may not be the best option. Making objective and informed decisions will help avoid upsetting losses come game day.
- No insider trading: If you’re a player or involved significantly with the NFL, you might want to research whether or not you can legally bet on NFL matches, as that is a recent hot topic.
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/noticias/2023/08/28/68505-the-ultimate-guide-to-using-your-super-bowl-odds-wisely
