Prediction market operator Kalshi has pulled back from plans to allow trading on whether individual NCAA athletes would enter or withdraw from the college sports transfer portal, following swift opposition from the NCAA and criticism across the sports and gambling industries.
Kalshi had filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to self-certify a series of event contracts tied to transfer portal activity, according to regulatory filings. The contracts were scheduled to be listed from Dec. 17 and would have allowed users to take positions on the transfer decisions of individual student-athletes.
The proposal drew immediate resistance from the NCAA, which said markets tied to athletes’ transfer decisions would place undue pressure on players and threaten the integrity of college sports.
NCAA President Charlie Baker called the idea “absolutely unacceptable,” warning that it would expose student-athletes to increased harassment and abuse. “It is already bad enough that student-athletes face harassment and abuse for lost bets on game performance,” Baker wrote on X. “Their decisions and future should not be gambled with, especially in an unregulated marketplace that does not follow any rules of legitimate sports betting operators.”
The @NCAA vehemently opposes college sports prediction markets. It is already bad enough that student-athletes face harassment and abuse for lost bets on game performance, and now Kalshi wants to offer bets on their transfer decisions and status — this is absolutely unacceptable…
— Charlie Baker (@CharlieBakerMA) December 18, 2025
Within hours of the backlash, Kalshi said it would not move forward with the contracts, at least for now. In a statement shared by ESPN reporter David Payne Purdum, the company said it often self-certifies markets that it ultimately does not launch.
“We certify markets all the time that we do not end up listing; despite our competitors having these markets live, we have no immediate plans to list these contracts,” Kalshi said.
According to the CFTC filing, the proposed contracts would have been resolved based on a player’s public entry into or withdrawal from the NCAA transfer portal within a defined time window. Resolution sources included official NCAA transfer portal data, school athletic department announcements, verified social media posts, and reporting from national sports media. Kalshi said public statements by players would count as valid signals, while media speculation alone would not.
Kalshi also said it would prohibit trading by players, coaches, athletic department staff, agents, immediate family members, and others with access to non-public or inside information, citing concerns over integrity and misuse.
The episode has renewed scrutiny of the regulatory framework governing prediction markets, which are allowed to self-certify contracts without prior CFTC approval and face regulatory intervention only if the agency objects. That structure has enabled firms such as Kalshi to list contracts that closely resemble traditional sports betting, even as state and federal authorities continue to debate their legal status.
Reaction to the filing was overwhelmingly negative on social media platforms, including X and Reddit, where critics raised concerns about inside information, athlete welfare and the potential for abuse. Sports law attorney Darren Adam Heitner warned that the proposal could create serious problems, writing: “This has the potential to get very messy.”
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2025/12/19/116906-kalshi-backs-away-from-ncaa-transfer-portal-markets-after-backlash
