Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to exceed consensus forecasts in 2026, supported by stimulus measures in mainland China and continued investment by casino operators, according to a report by CBRE.
CBRE’s investment research arm said it has raised its EBITDA estimates for the first quarter and full year of 2026 following stronger-than-expected GGR performance in the early months of the year.
Despite the improved outlook, Macau gaming stocks have lagged, with U.S.-listed operators down 14.0% year-to-date and their Hong Kong-listed counterparts falling 10.0%, reflecting investor concerns over the sustainability of growth and rising operating costs.
CBRE said it expects GGR growth to surpass the current consensus forecast of 6% for 2026, projecting an increase of 8.3% for the full year. The firm also anticipates that Macau’s gaming revenue growth will outpace China’s GDP target of 4.5% to 5.0%.
“After 1Q26, GGR would need to decelerate to +3.5% for the remainder of the year for FY26 to land at consensus,” the analysts wrote. “We believe this deceleration is unlikely.”
“China is targeting 4.5% to 5.0% GDP growth, and we expect Macau GGR to grow faster than GDP as the Chinese consumer continues to benefit from targeted stimulus.”
The report added that ongoing investment in entertainment offerings is expected to drive higher visitation. “The ongoing investment in entertainment in Macau should attract additional visitation, particularly from the base mass segment that has yet to fully recover,” they wrote. “We are forecasting Macau GGR to grow 8.3% in FY26.”
CBRE also outlined that concerns over rising promotional activity and operating expenses, which intensified late last year, are likely to ease.
Marketwide commissions rose 21% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 to account for 19.2% of GGR, while non-tax operating expenses increased 8.6%. The firm expects these trends to stabilise in 2026.
CBRE said it “expects promotional activity to remain elevated but stabilize in FY26, while opex growth should also normalize as many concession-related opex investments are now baked into the cost structure.”
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/04/07/118445-macau-gaming-revenue-to-beat-2026-forecasts-despite-stock-slump-cbre-says
