Prediction-market trading linked to the US midterm elections has already surpassed the total recorded during the entire 2024 congressional election cycle, highlighting the rapid expansion of the sector ahead of November’s vote.
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), a non-profit research and advocacy group, said $133 million had been wagered on the 2026 House and Senate elections as of 10 August, compared with $92.4 million during the 2024 congressional cycle, as reported by Reuters.
The group estimated that trading could reach $1.6 billion during the 2026 midterms if activity accelerates at the same rate as it did in 2024.
ACDC examined 7,466 markets covering House and Senate races across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. It found that the platforms had opened 16 times as many markets for the 2026 elections as they had for the 2024 congressional contests.
“Coverage has exploded compared to 2024. There are now multiple markets open for nearly every seat in the country,” said Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, a research fellow at ACDC.
The growth reflects increasing participation from both retail and institutional traders in prediction markets, which allow users to trade contracts linked to political, economic and other real-world events.
But the expansion has also brought greater regulatory scrutiny. Critics argue that the platforms amount to gambling, while prediction-market companies and the Trump administration maintain that they are financial markets.
The companies argue that their contracts can be used to hedge against risks or trade on views about future events.
ACDC also highlighted the concentration of trading among some users. Its data showed that the top 1% of digital wallets on Polymarket Global accounted for 68% of trading volume in markets linked to the 2026 congressional elections.
The group has raised concerns about the risks created by the growing number of markets. It warned that contracts covering events such as political endorsements and speeches could provide opportunities for people with inside information to profit.
David Szakonyi, co-founder and director at ACDC, also warned about the potential impact on public confidence in elections. “Prediction market odds could undermine trust in elections when the results go a different way,” he said.
The rapid growth comes after a major legal development for the industry. In 2024, Kalshi won a legal challenge against the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), clearing the way for Americans to trade derivatives linked to election outcomes.
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/08/19/125968-us-midterm-prediction-markets-already-surpass-2024-election-trading-total
