Americans are expected to legally wager $29.5 billion on the 2026 NFL season through regulated commercial sportsbooks, according to the American Gaming Association (AGA), which warns that growth in the legal market is slowing as prediction markets expand their sports offerings.
The estimate is broadly unchanged from the $29.4 billion wagered during the previous NFL season. The season begins on Sept. 9 with a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks in Seattle.
Legal sports betting has grown steadily since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018. However, AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said the expansion of prediction markets has begun to slow that growth.
“We’re excited for the NFL season to kick off, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting has seen tremendous growth,” Miller said.
“But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled,” he said.
The casino group warned that prediction markets are offering sports-related contracts across all 50 states and Washington, DC, including jurisdictions that have not legalized sports betting. Sports bets account for about 80% of market leader Kalshi’s volume, the AGA said, including an estimated $5.1 billion from users aged 18-20.
The AGA said prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025. Meanwhile, regulated gaming supports 1.8 million jobs and generates roughly $18 billion annually in sports betting tax revenue, it said.
The prediction sector is facing legal challenges over whether sports-event contracts are financial products subject to federal oversight or wagers governed by state gambling laws, a dispute that could reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
Miller also warned that prediction markets could leave consumers without the protections available in regulated sports betting.
“These ‘prediction market’ platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment,” he said.
“Kalshi and other ‘prediction markets’ say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, are placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”
Original article: https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/09/07/126262-aga-estimates-flat-295-billion-nfl-handle-as-prediction-markets-expand
