In December 2024, Singapore officially banned the prediction market platform Polymarket, calling it an unregulated gambling site.
Users trying to access Polymarket were informed that they were acting in violation of the Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA). Penalties included fines of up to SG10,000, six months in jail or both.
Residents of Singapore may legally gamble via Singapore Pools, a state-sanctioned portal offering lotteries, sports betting and horse race betting. However, the republic has detected a surge in wagers on Polymarket. While some are related to sports, like the Singapore Grand Prix, or politics, like the 2025 general election, others centre on mundane domestic events like the weather.
So far this month, gamblers have bet up to SG$127,160 (US$100,000) daily on the temperature in Singapore. For example, on 17 April, participants wagered almost SG$158,725 that the thermometer would reach 33°C.
Suspicious trades spark ethical concerns
Prediction markets like Polymarket have come under fire due to suspiciously timed bets on US military action in the Middle East. One Polymarket trader with the handle “Magamyman” made US$550,000 betting that Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be ousted, just hours before he was assassinated. Another bet that the US would bomb Iran was made on 28 February, shortly before the attack began.
Such incidents have sparked concerns about unethical conduct, including insider trading. Polymarket and Kalshi, both have ties to the Trump administration. The US president’s son, Donald Trump Jr, is an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket.
This month, Hong Kong suspended the start of legal sports betting due to a spike in prediction market activity. In a 14 April statement, the Hong Kong government noted that the trading volume reached US$64 billion in 2025, up 200% from the previous year. “Given these latest developments, as a responsible government, it is necessary to conduct a more in-depth study into the operations of these emerging models and platforms,” officials said.
Similarly, authorities in Singapore remind the public that those who “deliberately circumvent the government’s blocking measures do so at their own risk”.
Marjorie Preston
Marjorie began her gaming career in 2007 and has focused on Asian gaming markets since 2020. Outside of work, she writes about travel and film and plays the drums.
Original article: https://igamingbusiness.com/crypto-gambling/singapore-sees-rise-in-illegal-prediction-market-wagers/
